From Joe Bastardi's AccuWeather Blog
FRIDAY 7 AM
ATLANTIC WAVE TRAIN TRENDS WEST WITH EACH STORM
Danielle is now a major hurricane, and Earl will also become one, as well as cause plenty of concern for the East Coast. I have no change on this... the path farther west will be enough so that simple errors from five days out... say the storm is 150 miles farther west and the ridge is 30 meters stronger, will bring this dangerously close to the North Carolina or mid-Atlantic coast next week as a major hurricane. However, for now, the idea from yesterday is still the idea I have out. And like yesterday, I will tell you I believe the GFS is wrong on what will be Fiona, that will be even farther west and south. In fact, the Euro has it looking like Dora, 1964, and one of the analog years here for the season, though this one because of a warm AMO is like 1964 on steroids, Dora, the D storm started Aug. 28th.
In any case, the videos will take care of a lot of this...
The Gulf is alive this morning. I want to see what the vis pics look like, but there is wind and nasty weather under the thunderstorms in the northeastern Gulf. The low pressure with that is near the Louisiana coast, and the problem is we have two lows, one in the northern Gulf, the other farther southeast of Tampico. But here we go again in the Louisiana coastal waters... another system not reaching actual tropical storm status, but raising a royal ruckus anyway. There have been wind gusts over gale force out of the south already at data buoys out there, and it's not like there is nothing going on. From 6-10 inches of rain is liable to fall in the Louisiana coastal waters over the next 36-48 hours, as this looks like it's drifting northeast. And lo and behold, thunderstorms are firing off the south Atlantic coast. All this pales compared to the parade, but is in closer.
And of course then there is the heat wave. The biggest argument against Earl hitting is the heat wave!!! When do you have heat waves in the East with hurricane hits? Actually, you can have it... we did in October 1971 with Ginger (temperatures were breaking records), but that is more like the pattern the Euro is portraying with Fiona. Earl, in relation to the East Coast, looks more like the setup in late August 1966 when Faith tried to come up, but found the weakness in the ridge and got out. Then again, another storm comes to mind... Emily, I think in 1993, which hit North Carolina while a heat wave was going on, but then turned out. That was the subject of a paper I saw praising the GFDL on its forecast if hitting the re-curve, which it did... the third time. The model had missed on two forecast re-curves, one near 65, and the other near 70... and the people that wrote the article choose to ignore the fact that if the model had been right in the first place, it never would have come down to the third re-curve after hurricane conditions occurred on the Outer Banks. But that was a great shot... a rarity... of a hurricane on the North Carolina Outer Banks with no front within 500 miles, just a cork bobbing through the stream, and then turning northeast.
In any case, I will show some pretty neat examples.
Fear not, Earl will crank up once to 50 west, and the system that should be Fiona will too. I see another wave is coming off Africa.
Ciao for now. ****
Discussion, updates and tracking about Hurricanes, Tropical Storms and Depressions that may be related to Florida.
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- Kenny Wilder
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